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Brexit- what next

On Thursday the 23rd June Britain voted to leave the EU. The referendum turnout was 71.8%, with more than 30 million people voting. It was the highest turnout in a UK-wide vote since the 1992 general election.

England voted strongly for Brexit, by 53.4% to 46.6%, as did Wales, with Leave getting 52.5% of the vote and Remain 47.5%. Scotland and Northern Ireland both backed staying in the EU. Scotland backed Remain by 62% to 38%, while 55.8% in Northern Ireland voted Remain and 44.2% Leave.

Effect on the economy?

Britain’s exit from the EU will most definitely affect the UK economy however it will take years for the full consequences to become clear.

In the short run, uncertainty about Britain’s future relationship with the EU, its largest trading partner, could push the UK into a recession. The British pound has lost about 9 percent of its value since Thursday’s vote, and Britain’s FTSE 100 stock index lost 3 percent of its value in Friday trading.

Volatility was expected, so swift clarity on the process of dis-entanglement is crucial if positive business sentiment is to return as businesses will only continue to invest when there is transparency.

One of the most controversial achievements of the EU was that of free movement among members of the EU. A citizen of one of the EU countries was able to move freely to work and live anywhere in the EU.

It is possible that Britain could negotiate a new treaty with the EU that would mean a continued entitlement to allow free movement between the UK and EU. But resentment of EU immigrants from poorer, economically struggling countries was a key force driving support for Brexit. So the British government will be under great pressure to break away from this arrangement. What will this mean for those EU citizens living and working in the UK now? Again clarity is required quickly.
Could the result trigger a UK breakup?

With Scotland voting overwhelmingly to remain in the EU and some Scottish people seemingly unsettled with the thought of English domination.

Britain’s exit from the EU could definitely strengthen the argument for Scotland to separate itself from England. There has already been signals that some Scottish leaders want to hold a second referendum on Scottish independence. If this vote should go ahead and succeed, Scotland would likely try to gain admission to the EU in its own right.

Hunt, A (2016) The UK’s EU referendum: All you need to know. Available at:
Lee, T (2016) Brexit, What happens when Britain leaves the EU? Available at: